Asia is also Vulnerable to Shut-Down of Air Traffic Due to Volcano Ash and Violent Weather Patterns Region-Wide Air Traffic Control Modernization Key to Averting Crisis

With more than 160 active volcanoes in East Asia alone and the range of typhoons, sandstorms, and winter storms that hit Asia each and every year, it is clear that the recent shut-down of air traffic in Europe due to ash from a volcano in Iceland, and the knock-on that was felt throughout the world, should be a wake-up call to Asian countries that a modernized air traffic control system is critical to the mitigation of similar incidents in this part of the world. 

Just recently a heavy snowstorm coupled with a blinding sandstorm blowing across northern China delayed flights which were intended to bring life-saving relief supplies and workers to Qinghai province the site of a severe earthquake.  In October 2009, Typhoon Parma wreaked havoc on the Philippines and moved on to inflict damage on Taiwan as well, disrupting air traffic across the region and causing economic loss well beyond that inflicted directly by the typhoon.  Flight delays caused by weather disruptions clearly have consequences on an airline’s bottom line in addition to lost business for those who rely on airlines as part of their operations.

Qantas reported that flight delays and cancellations from the recent volcanic ash cost the company US$1.4 million in revenues a day , while the total damage for the world’s airlines from this incident is estimated at $1.7 billion according to the International Air Transport Association .

Asia may be vulnerable to a shut-down of air traffic to volcano ash and violent weather patterns but the region is better protected than much of Europe because it has installed or is in the process of installing modern air traffic control systems at airports throughout the region that offer air traffic controllers the tools to better track weather patterns and, thus, advise aircraft how they can anticipate and fly around these natural occurrences.

The “next generation” of air traffic control systems such as the American NextGen program and the European SESAR (Single European Sky ATM Research) program will allow air traffic controllers to sustain operations even when there is inclement weather.  While nationwide implementation is scheduled for 2025 in the U.S., advanced ATM technologies like the Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast will be rolled out in the Chicago area by the summer of 2011 .  In Europe, the recent air traffic crisis made it apparent that if the modern ATM systems had been available in that region, the shut-down of European air space would have been minimized and made much shorter and with it, the impact global air travel would have been much less severe.  European aviation authorities have now been forced to consider moving up their timelines ahead of the 2012 schedule to begin SESAR implementation. 

Among its benefits, a modern air traffic management (ATM) system integrates improved weather sensors and allows air traffic controllers to create a comprehensive weather picture to help better plan and control flights.  It also gives controllers computerized weather pattern predictive capabilities, so that plans can take into account not just what the weather system is now, but also where it will be in the future.   That capability is not available with the current (insert) generation of air traffic control systems that are still widely used throughout Europe.

How would a modern ATM system work?  Let us take the case of the recent volcanic ash in Europe.  A modern ATM system would have given air traffic controllers the ability to predict which airspace would be clear of the volcanic ash and when that would happen.  Then, based on the wind patterns, they can restrict or close only airspace that had severe ash content rather than the entire European airspace.  Knowing how the weather pattern will change in the future could also have allowed the airspace to re-open earlier.  This predicative capability, combined with the automation software tool in modern ATM systems that allows air traffic decision-makers to view and share information with each other, increases collaborative decision making based on accurate real-time information and advanced computer models.

Asia has the potential to lead in global air traffic management by adopting the next-gen air traffic control technologies available today.  Governments in Asia should learn from the recent crisis in Europe that the inefficiencies, flaws, and workarounds of our current air traffic control systems can lead to a complete breakdown.  Investments need to be made today to ensure that our ATM systems are as modern as the economies they support.  These new ATM systems already planned for many of the major airports in the region will make the skies safer, they will result in less flight disruptions and related hits to the region’s economies.  Equally important, they will ensure a better travel experience for passengers and more certainty for air cargo users.
 

by Antonio Lo Brutto