Twenty years on in A&D – "It's war Jim, but not as we know it"

Moving on from reactive logistics

In 20 years time, mobility, wearable technology and the Internet of Things will be commonplace and new technologies around Artificial Intelligence (AI), autonomy and robotics will change the way war is waged, military equipment is developed and the way in which assets are supported. Brendan Viggers, Product & Sales Support for the IFS Aerospace & Defence (A&D) Centre of Excellence, looks at where logistics support will need to move in the next 20 years to accommodate these advances in A&D technology.

Historically we have consistently followed Moore's law – where the processing power of computers doubles every two years. While originally this focused on the developmental history of computing hardware, this rate of development will inevitably impact the parallel rate of change in military logistics software and support. Predictions are already being made that robotic automation may be following the same pattern with rapid and huge developments anticipated in the near future.

As Jackie Fenn, VP and fellow at analyst firm Gartner notes: "Mobile robots have emerged from the military and government where they were performers of "dirty, dull or dangerous tasks" in places or situations where people cannot or do not want to go. Those applications remain, and the robots that perform them are becoming lower-cost and higher-performing."

Twenty years is not that long a time in bringing developments to theatre; technologies such as AI, autonomy and robotics are already embedded in military weapon systems and inevitably they will have important implications in the world of A&D logistics support in the years to come. We therefore need to understand how technology in A&D will develop over the next 20 years and how logistical support will develop to address these changes.

The Unmanned Submarine

We are already aware that most western militaries are already using examples of this technology carrying out Explosive Ordinance Disposal (EOD) tasks such as searching for mines or exploring sea beds for charting purposes – but the possibility for expanding application to offensive capability is a distinct possibility.

Larger submarines could, in theory, stay under the water indefinitely as they will not have to surface for supplies – and with no crew, the support chain could be less challenging. This approach is already being tested aboard the USS Essex where they have been using 3D printing technology to produce everything from plastic syringes to the silhouettes of planes that are used on the mock-up of the flight deck to keep the flight deck organised.

The whole submarine and maintenance process is likely to become more refined, compact and efficient allowing a new level of self-sufficiency and remote control never seen before. But the support chain itself is always likely to be the critical factor and the organisation of the end-to-end support chain will require unprecedented flexibility to cope with such ever accelerating change.

The Game of Drones

We are already seeing a "Game of Drones" with a multitude of unmanned vehicles being used for reconnaissance and for some combat missions, flying higher, longer, bringing in better intelligence for mapping and protecting troops on the ground. Most western forces already use large, complex Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) such as the Watchkeeper or Reaper deployed on the battlefield.

However, smaller UAVs are being introduced, such as the Black Hornet Nano in use by the British Army and measuring just 10 × 2.5cm, small enough to fit in one hand and weigh very little. This technology is increasingly becoming ‘almost’ disposable, even consumable!

There will always be troops on the ground

In this time frame of 20 years, it is difficult to envisage a battlefield or support chain that does not involve troops on the ground. We are a long way from that position, and still require support, particularly to provide resources such as fuel. As highlighted by a US House of Appropriations Defense Sub-Committee briefing, it has been estimated that it costs $400 per gallon to get fuel out to forward operating bases in Afghanistan from the US.

There will perhaps be change from the two main types of fuel on which power is currently based – AVTUR and diesel – and possibly nuclear and reusable energy may become more portable, but for different reasons both have major technological and political problems.

Military Operations – 4 key developments

How will logistics have to adapt to support these developments? From an operational perspective, there are four key areas which I predict will have a significant impact on the effectiveness of maintenance:

1. Self-Reporting
Health and Usage Monitoring Systems (HUMS) is a recent major development in military use but the change we are likely to see is how it integrates into the optimised enterprise. Equipment can report on its own current configuration, faults can be reported, usage and misuse information analysed, feeding this information back into the overall enterprise solution.

2. Mobile – but not as we know it
Mobile technology is not revolutionary and far from new but tailoring it within an A&D solution is where it has the potential to do something significant. Technology, including the increasing adoption of wearables, allows critical information to be accessed by the troops on the ground – at any time and in any place – and a feedback loop providing the A&D industry with a real and meaningful step towards a more agile response in changing tactical situations.

3. Context Aware
Future developments will introduce increased use of solutions that will automatically tailor their presentation and operation through recognition of the maintenance environment it is in. Maintenance in the field is very different from at the depot and therefore being aware of these unique environments will enable tailoring of the solutions in a more effective and beneficial way, again making life easier for the war-fighter.

4. Augmented Reality
Sophisticated Augmented Reality technology will also assist in such unique settings, both in training and in an operational environment where the maintainer cannot easily see or access a given asset. This would interact with the enterprise solution, feeding back maintenance progress and actions into the wider solution, again making life easier for the maintainer both in a pre-emptive training scenario, and difficult environments in the field.

The Enterprise – moving on from reactive logistics

Over the next 20 years, we will see the full integration – the 6th generation – of operations, the enterprise, maintenance and the supply chain into an optimised enterprise IS solution. This IS solution will give commanders and managers a 360-degree view of operations and business processes offering overall clarity of performance combined with integrated and automated forecasting capabilities.

There are four key areas which I believe should be addressed through this enterprise IS solution:

1. Optimisation and Forecasting
Traditionally organisations have used a ‘deterministic’ approach to inventory and demand planning. The future 6th generation logistics solution will consider support optimisation using probabilistic methodology as the way forward, as this approach takes into account the impact of variability in demand, supply or event occurrence because as with many things the use of “averages” in planning can lead to problems.

2. Dynamic Asset Management and Scheduling
The 6th generation logistics solution will have embedded within it workforce scheduling and planning capabilities built to respond immediately in real-time to real-world events in order to maximise operator value, maximise workforce utilisation, maximise automation and minimise cost.

3. Impact of an increasingly integrated industry/military enterprise
Industry-based concepts, such as Performance-Based Logistics (PBL), have been introduced to support weapons systems logistics processes by focusing on procurement of services as a performance package to optimise system readiness rather than simply procuring goods. The 6th generation logistics solution will provide a common IS platform to deliver appropriate views to both industry and the military.

4. Proliferation of counterfeit parts and ITAR
The requirements of International Trade in Arms Regulations (ITAR) as well as the proliferation of counterfeit parts will raise increasing requirements on any future logistics solution. The 6th generation enterprise solution must have embedded capabilities across its enterprise that can deal with both ITAR and counterfeit spares.

The Future – 6th generation logistical support

Systems such as the Autonomic Logistics Information System (ALIS) for the Lockheed Martin F-35 are seeing us already move into the 5th generation of logistical support, offering the first step to a true integration of logistics into an enterprise solution with operational equipment, which is in turn linked into maintenance and the wider support chain.

To determine how logistics support systems will adapt in the future, it’s essential that we understand that weapon systems themselves will change – they will likely become consumable and autonomous. As a result, I expect to see enterprise solutions move from the latest ALIS-type logistics model to a new 6th generation solution, combining greater integration, optimisation and forecasting across the whole enterprise consisting of weapons systems, operations, the business enterprise, maintenance and the supply chain.

Technology will increasingly be used to create an environment for the war-fighter which helps them to better do their job, reducing solution overheads while also providing the always-essential feedback loop to industry, which will inevitably take an increasingly significant role, so that the enterprise is managed end-to-end.